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Market Forecasts: Q3 2024

With the ECB joining the ranks of central banks in rate-cut mode, attention now shifts to when the US Fed will cut and by how much as growth decelerates.

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • Global performance remains moderate but steady, with broadening signs of a bottoming out in manufacturing, improvement in Europe, and visible deceleration in the United States.
  • Political and geopolitical risks loom large. Elections in Mexico, India, and the European Union all brought surprising outcomes, highlighting the limitations of forecasting exercises and the potential for rising volatility ahead of the US elections in November.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Disinflation is now in full force among former laggards in the emerging markets universe.
  • Until the monetary easing impetus broadens across the globe, the improvement in EM growth will likely be subdued.

Global Capital Markets

  • Market regimes and risk-taking sentiment may be influenced by comparisons with preceding time periods. The relatively easy “comps” that contributed to a favorable risk-taking environment in 2023 and early 2024 look set to become more challenging — and may mean less aggressive equity allocations will be warranted.
  • For bond markets, the situation is more mixed with seemingly easier comparisons to be drawn with respect to the monetary policy backdrop — but uncertain impacts from fiscal policy are factors as voters go to the polls in the United States and Europe.

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