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With the ECB joining the ranks of central banks in rate-cut mode, attention now shifts to when the US Fed will cut and by how much as growth decelerates.
Global performance remains moderate but steady, with broadening signs of a bottoming out in manufacturing, improvement in Europe, and visible deceleration in the United States.
Political and geopolitical risks loom large. Elections in Mexico, India, and the European Union all brought surprising outcomes, highlighting the limitations of forecasting exercises and the potential for rising volatility ahead of the US elections in November.
Emerging Markets Outlook
Disinflation is now in full force among former laggards in the emerging markets universe.
Until the monetary easing impetus broadens across the globe, the improvement in EM growth will likely be subdued.
Global Capital Markets
Market regimes and risk-taking sentiment may be influenced by comparisons with preceding time periods. The relatively easy “comps” that contributed to a favorable risk-taking environment in 2023 and early 2024 look set to become more challenging — and may mean less aggressive equity allocations will be warranted.
For bond markets, the situation is more mixed with seemingly easier comparisons to be drawn with respect to the monetary policy backdrop — but uncertain impacts from fiscal policy are factors as voters go to the polls in the United States and Europe.
The views expressed in this material are the views of Simona Mocuta and Jeremiah Holly through the period ended June 30, 2024 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document may contain certain statements deemed to be forward-looking statements. All statements, other than historical facts, contained within this document that address activities, events or developments that SSGA expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by SSGA in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances, many of which are detailed herein. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, uncertainties, many of which are beyond SSGA’s control. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.
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Equity securities may fluctuate in value and can decline significantly in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.
Companies with large market capitalizations go in and out of favor based on market and economic conditions. Larger companies tend to be less volatile than companies with smaller market capitalizations. In exchange for this potentially lower risk, the value of the security may not rise as much as companies with smaller market capitalizations.
Investments in small-sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, better known companies.
The value of the debt securities may increase or decrease as a result of the following: market fluctuations, increases in interest rates, inability of issuers to repay principal and interest or illiquidity in the debt securities markets; the risk of low rates of return due to reinvestment of securities during periods of falling interest rates or repayment by issuers with higher coupon or interest rates; and/or the risk of low income due to falling interest rates. To the extent that interest rates rise, certain underlying obligations may be paid off substantially slower than originally anticipated and the value of those securities may fall sharply. This may result in a reduction in income from debt securities income.
Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Government bonds and corporate bonds generally have more moderate short-term price fluctuations than stocks, but provide lower potential long-term returns.
Foreign investments involve greater risks than investments, including political and economic risks and the risk of currency fluctuations, all of which may be magnified in emerging markets.
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