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Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary: Q3 2024

The global macro and risk backdrop was increasingly favorable for emerging market debt as the third quarter progressed. A combination of market expectations and the actual outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting, when it cut interest rates, weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yields. This provided a strong tailwind for the performance of EM debt in the quarter.

Chart of the Quarter: Strong Tailwinds in Q3 Underpinned EM Debt Returns

EMD Commentary Fig1

Emerging market (EM) debt began the quarter in positive fashion, benefiting from a softer US inflation print and market expectations that the US Fed was increasingly likely to start lowering interest rates from September. However, there were bouts of uncertainty early in Q3 around the future trajectory of EM core rates, with markets factoring in US election outcome possibilities and the prevailing geopolitical risks. While markets welcomed the reopening of Israel-Hamas talks in July, the situation remained very fragile and escalated further towards quarter-end. The EM risk backdrop improved as the quarter progressed, with a dovish tone in messaging from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in August and subsequent data releases supported the likelihood of a soft landing in the US. As widely expected, the Fed commenced policy easing in September with the delivery of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut to take the federal funds target rate range to 4.75%-5.00%. The bigger-than-expected policy rate cut surprised markets and added to improving prospects for EM debt. Total returns were positive in Q3 for both EM local currency and hard currency bonds. The US dollar weakness combined with a drop in EM local yields supported EM local bond performance. EM hard currency debt benefited from a decline in US benchmark Treasury yields and a notable narrowing of spreads.

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