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Emerging Market Debt Market Commentary: Q2 2024

Emerging market (EM) debt began the quarter facing headwinds from market repricing of core rates and a surge in commodity prices. A market narrative built on the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining high rates for longer than had been anticipated weighed on investor risk sentiment in April. The EM macro backdrop improved in May, backed by a partial reversal of US dollar strength and a softening in US Treasury yields. The geopolitical backdrop remained uncertain, with Israel’s operations in Rafah and elections taking place in India, Mexico, and South Africa. Market sentiment remained cautious in June, as market participants pushed out the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut late into 2024. The Fed’s policy rate was retained at the 5.25%-to-5.50% range throughout the quarter, acknowledging resilient US economic activity and still-high inflation, notwithstanding the latest softer-than-expected inflation print. The prospect of the US economy continuing to be resilient, alongside the strength of the US dollar, weighed on EM local bond performance, in particular. EM hard currency bonds delivered positive returns in Q2, driven by the spread component.

In China, the government relaxed home buying restrictions and reduced down payment ratios to support the prevailing sluggishness of its housing market. In May, the Ministry of Finance in China launched a one trillion yuan ultra-long special sovereign bond program with a tenor of 20 to 50 years. The first tranche attracted strong demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.91. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) retained its 1-year loan prime rate and the five-year mortgage reference rate at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively, through Q2. In Latin America (LatAm), the Central Bank of Chile reduced its benchmark interest rate from 7.25% to 5.75% over the quarter. Rate cuts were also delivered in Brazil and Colombia. In Europe, Hungary and Czech Republic lowered their policy rates to 7.00% and 5.25% from 8.25% and 5.75%, respectively. The central bank of Turkey maintained its key one-week repo auction rate at a record high of 50%, as it continued to combat remarkably high inflation. EM central banks in Asia (ex-China) continued to be cautious. The central bank of Indonesia delivered a 25bps hike in April and retained its interest rate at 6.25% for the rest of Q2. Malaysia’s central bank kept its overnight policy rate unchanged 3.0% throughout the quarter.

Net flows in the quarter for hard currency and local currency funds amounted to +$1.3bn and -$3.7bn, respectively (source: JP Morgan).

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