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France’s Fiscal Fragility Strains the Eurozone

Head of Macro Policy Research
Senior Investment Strategist

In our second Focus on Fiscal article, we examine the challenges facing the euro area, and France in particular, over the coming years. To paraphrase Tolstoy, each fiscal situation is problematic in its own particular way, yet none is more so than in the eurozone — given the nature of the monetary union.

Fiscal stress in one member state can have direct spillover effects across the entire currency bloc. Furthermore, there are multiple political layers between national and European bodies that can undermine market confidence. While we believe a repeat of the European sovereign debt crisis (2010-2012) remains unlikely, low growth and pandemic-driven excess government spending are setting the scene for increased fiscal stress and internal tensions toward the end of this decade.

What does this mean for investors? This fiscal landscape portends a weaker euro given that Europe’s lower growth and inflation picture suggests a steeper monetary easing cycle than in the United States.

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