The announcement of a UK general election for July 4 caught markets and media by surprise, with a vote later in the year previously deemed more likely. With the Conservative Party languishing behind Labour in opinion polls, a change in government has long been projected. But are markets underestimating the potential for an upside surprise under a Labour government?
That Labour will win a comfortable majority in the upcoming UK general election is almost a given. After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party has accumulated too much electoral baggage — from Brexit to Liz Truss’s mini-budget to Boris Johnson’s Covid-era parties. For its part, Labour is running a disciplined and distinctly centrist campaign. Its platform is simple and perhaps best summarized as “it’s time for change and we are a pair of safe hands.” A comfortable victory seems almost certain and a likely 80-120 seat majority will ensure Keir Starmer becomes the UK’s next prime minister.
Markets have largely shrugged off the election announcement. Observers had expected the elections to be held in the fourth quarter of the year. The July date came as a surprise, yet this is ultimately not material. Mindful of Liz Truss’s experience after briefly becoming prime minister in 2022, Labour has promised to act with restraint in regard to the budget and debt. This has reassured investors on downside risks of a Labour government. However, the market also sees little upside. Without a meaningful fiscal impulse, it is considered likely that a new government can do little to invigorate chronically lagging growth.
Figure 1: UK Government Has Exhausted its Available Fiscal Space
What Labour lacks in fiscal space, it can make up with policy reform. For investors, most consequential would be structural reforms that address supply side constraints on growth. We think that under a Labour government, such reforms are more probable – if for no other reason than Conservative-led governments failed to deliver them during their 14 years in power. What could these look like?
In short, we believe there is room for an upside surprise from the election. Markets see little downside uncertainty, but equally, there are low upside expectations. This is too pessimistic in our view, given the centrist and reform-minded policy stance of the prospective Labour government that could have a material positive impact on the country’s macro fundamentals in the medium term.