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Market Forecasts: Q4 2024

Chief Economist
Portfolio Manager

Global Economic Outlook

  • Global growth forecasts are largely unchanged from last quarter, with the pace of economic expansion in 2024 slowing moderately in 2025. Easing inflation, resilient consumers, and a broadening of central bank rate cuts underpin our expectations for a soft landing.
  • The geopolitical landscape remains tense amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East and as the United States goes to the polls in early November in an election that could materially change policy direction.

Emerging Markets Outlook

  • Chinese authorities are seeking to counter deepening deflationary pressures with more stimulus.
  • Monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve relieves some emerging markets risks, but US elections could bring about others, particularly on trade.

Global Capital Markets

  • Equity markets still appear to be in reasonably good health, but we are growing more cautious due to less supportive sentiment readings and concerning divergences related to forward earnings expectations.
  • Bond markets appear to be closer to embracing a soft-landing economic scenario and high yield bonds look relatively attractive given low default rates and muted expected returns for equities, despite historically tight spreads.

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