Will These Grey Swans Take Flight in 2025?

Our Global Market Outlook showcases our current investment views for 2025. But what about the less-likely scenarios — our Grey Swans — that could have a significant impact this year if they were to happen?

1

Europe Surprises

What if Europe countered humdrum expectations with a strong resurgence? Could this help lift
investors’ perception of Europe as an investment destination?

2

China and an Emerging Markets Renaissance

What if the Chinese government really gets serious about delivering a strong reform? This, more than anything, could bring new life to the emerging markets asset class.

3

Are the 2020s the new 1920s  — or 1970s?

Are we in the new “Roaring Twenties” (lower regulatory barriers for business, but with policy mis-steps that proved disastrous)? Or a repeat of the 1970s, with stagflation and low economic growth — but where tough policy choices ultimately usher in decades of prosperity?

4

A Quantum Breakthrough

A transformative breakthrough in quantum computing research resets expectations around the timing and scalability of the technology — creating an urgency for the financial services industry.

5

Power Disruption

Whether by accident, natural disaster, or malicious design, a major disruption leaves a significant section of the US without stable electricity.

6

A Trump Plaza Accord

President Trump uses the threat of tariffs to force a coordinated intervention to weaken the US dollar — with knock-on effects for US assets and beyond.

Global Chief Investment Officer Lori Heinel explains our Grey Swans for 2025 — and the potential implications for investors.

Meet the Authors

Bio Image of Lori M. Heinel

Lori M. Heinel, CFA

Executive Vice President, Global Chief Investment Officer

Bio Image of Simona M Mocuta

Simona M Mocuta

Chief Economist

Bio Image of Elliot Hentov

Elliot Hentov, Ph.D.

Head of Macro Policy Research

Bio Image of Altaf Kassam

Altaf Kassam, CFA

Europe Head of Investment Strategy & Research

Bio Image of Matthew Nest

Matthew Nest, CFA

Global Head of Active Fixed Income

Bio Image of Esther Baroudy

Esther Baroudy, CFA

Portfolio Manager

Bio Image of Aaron R Hurd

Aaron R Hurd, FRM

Senior Portfolio Manager

Bio Image of Jennifer Bender

Jennifer Bender, Ph.D.

Chief Investment Strategist

Bio Image of Christopher N Laine

Christopher N Laine

Senior Portfolio Manager