Insights
The Performance of US Equities in Election Years
We conducted analysis of the S&P equity return data over the last 100 years and examined the behaviour of equity market returns during election years.
- Our research indicates that there was a positive return differential in the S&P in the months leading up to the election, and the short-term holding return was positive.
- The state of the economy has historically played a vital role in influencing the performance of US equities during election years.
- Analysis suggests investors may want to stay invested, particularly if reasonable growth and inflation are expected, as there is still time to strategically position portfolios.
The 2024 US presidential election is on the horizon, and investors are keen to gain insight into the election’s potential impact on the performance of US equity markets this year. While past performance cannot predict the future, history may be able to offer some insight. To that end, we analysed 100 years of equity return data using S&P1 indices, starting from August 1923, to assess the behaviour of equity market returns during election years.