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The global economy is set to slow amid ongoing disinflation, but the shift to more dovish central bank messaging lessens the chances of a recession in 2024.
The path to a soft landing seems more viable, with recession risks easing somewhat. But the effects of earlier tightening policy are still working through the system even as central banks embrace easier policy in 2024.
Geopolitical events will be key to watch in 2024, given multiple potential flashpoints around the world and a massive election cycle globally.
Emerging Markets Outlook
Inflation continues to retreat, providing room for emerging market central banks to extend the easing bias.
A weaker US dollar and lower interest rates should offer a more helpful backdrop, not only for emerging market economies but also for EM assets.
Global Capital Markets
Although some signs of complacency seem to have crept into equity markets, we continue to see a healthy outlook for global stock markets — some of which appear close to setting new all time highs.
The fundamental outlook for fixed income looks attractive as our expectations are for relatively subdued growth and lower short term interest rates. However, nearer term technical oriented factors suggest the rally in rates may have come too far and too fast.
The views expressed in this material are the views of Simona Mocuta and Jeremiah Holly through the period ended December 31, 2023 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document may contain certain statements deemed to be forward looking statements. All statements, other than historical facts, contained within this document that address activities, events or developments that SSGA expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward looking statements. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by SSGA in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances, many of which are detailed herein. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks, uncertainties, many of which are beyond SSGA’s control. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements.
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Equity securities may fluctuate in value and can decline significantly in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.
Companies with large market capitalizations go in and out of favor based on market and economic conditions. Larger companies tend to be less volatile than companies with smaller market capitalizations. In exchange for this potentially lower risk, the value of the security may not rise as much as companies with smaller market capitalizations.
Investments in small sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, better known companies.
The value of the debt securities may increase or decrease as a result of the following: market fluctuations, increases in interest rates, inability of issuers to repay principal and interest or illiquidity in the debt securities markets; the risk of low rates of return due to reinvestment of securities during periods of falling interest rates or repayment by issuers with higher coupon or interest rates; and/or the risk of low income due to falling interest rates. To the extent that interest rates rise, certain underlying obligations may be paid off substantially slower than originally anticipated and the value of those securities may fall sharply. This may result in a reduction in income from debt securities income.
Bonds generally present less short term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates rise bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Government bonds and corporate bonds generally have more moderate short term price fluctuations than stocks, but provide lower potential long term returns.
Foreign investments involve greater risks than investments, including political and economic risks and the risk of currency fluctuations, all of which may be magnified in emerging markets.
Investing in commodities entail significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Commodities investing entail significant risk as commodity prices can be extremely volatile due to wide range of factors. A few such factors include overall market movements, real or perceived inflationary trends, commodity index volatility, international, economic and political changes, change in interest and currency exchange rates.
Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations.
Investments in emerging or developing markets may be more volatile and less liquid than investing in developed markets and may involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature and to political systems which have less stability than those of more developed countries.
Investing in REITs involves certain distinct risks in addition to those risks associated with investing in the real estate industry in general. Equity REITs may be affected by changes in the value of the underlying property owned by the REITs, while mortgage REITs may be affected by the quality of credit extended. REITs are subject to heavy cash flow dependency, default by borrowers and self liquidation. REITs, especially mortgage REITs, are also subject to interest rate risk (i.e., as interest rates rise, the value of the REIT may decline).
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